THE IRAN “TREATY” – DON’T LET THE PRESIDENT OR HIS MINIONS LIE ABOUT THIS, BECAUSE IT IS EMBARRASSING AND A DISASTER
Dr. Common Good
Finding words to describe the ignorance, corruption, destructiveness and utter venality of the Trump regime is always a challenge, because we do not come to these events prepared to witness the scale of the damage he creates on a daily basis. We simply lack adequate descriptive tools. What was once the bottom of the barrel, for which we had enough harsh words, is not even close. Trump and his thug-gang just continue to dig deeper into the nether-lands of depravity, in open view.
So now we come to the purported “Iran deal,” which is not a deal at all, but just a flimsy agreement to talk about a deal, and, in reality, a play toy which the Iranians can use to extract other concessions and continue to show Trump (and, by extension, the U.S.) as the fool. Let’s take a look at this “deal” and compare it to the actual and successful deal that was negotiated in 2015 by the Obama administration (referred to as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) after careful and painstaking negotiations, undertaken by people who were actually knowledgeable and professional. You will see that what Trump has managed to eke out does not even come close to the JCPOA, which, by the way, was concluded without war, without killing schoolchildren and thousands of Iranian civilians, without killing and wounding American servicepersons, without wasting billions of taxpayer dollars (estimated as at least $25 billion), without needlessly depleting our stockpile of arms, and without prompting an economic crisis. Remember, the Straits of Hormuz had never been closed before Trump’s appallingly stupid war of choice, but now that Pandora’s Box has been opened — by Trump, and only by Trump. And remember, when Trump assumed the presidency in 2017, he immediately tore up the JCPOA, calling it “horrible.” Why? For no sane reason, other than to satisfy his juvenile, petulant ego and reverse any achievements made by his predecessor Obama. It was only then that Iran began to enrich its uranium towards weapons-grade levels. In other words, Trump created the crisis that he has dramatically failed to fix (aided and abetted by Israel’s Netanyahu, who had his own longstanding reasons for going to war with Iran).
Trump’s “Deal”
After all the bombs, killing, and bluster, Trump’s “treaty” includes the following:
- A temporary memorandum of understanding (MOU) good for 60 days, and only between the U.S. and Iran.
- Iran will re-open the Strait of Hormuz (for 60 days), in exchange for sanctions relief and an end to the U.S. blockade. Yet Iran still claims and is exercising various other controls over the Strait that it did not have before the war, and in reality, the Strait may never be open and free as it was prior to Trump’s attacks.
- In the MOU, Iran makes a vague commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons, but there is no enforcement mechanism.
- There is no resolution in the MOU about Iran’s uranium stockpile, just an agreement to discuss it in future negotiations.
- There is nothing in the MOU about Iran’s missile capability. In fact, astonishingly, Trump even said, at the recent G7 summit: “I mean, they have to have some (missiles) because other people have some, and they’ve got to have some.” Whaaat? I invite you to compare that to his previous bombast.
And to get that, the Trump administration has agreed to:
- Lift oil restrictions, allowing Iran to reap enormous economic benefits. Specifically, per the agreement, “the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.”
- Sanctions relief, which he and his administration once denounced. The U.S., according to the agreement, will “terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions.”
- Release billions of dollars in frozen funds. Per the agreement, the U.S. “undertakes to make fully available for use, the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU.” According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran has tens of billions of dollars in frozen assets around the world, including an estimated $20 billion to $50 billion in China.” The timing of the asset releases is unclear. But, given Trump’s sharp criticism of the JCPOA for giving money to Iran, this could not be more ironic, or hypocritical – even more so because Trump’s rationale for unfreezing the assets is “We have taken their money, it’s not our money, it’s their money, and we froze it” (statement made at the G7 conference). Well, if that isn’t just downright Obama-like.
- Help create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for reconstruction in Iran with regional partners.
The Obama Administration Treaty (JCPOA)
After 20 months of diplomatic negotiations that included nuclear and other experts, the JCPOA included the following:
- A finalized and signed agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal was negotiated between Iran, the U.S., China, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union.
- Iran agreed to reduce its nuclear centrifuges by two-thirds, committed not to build new enrichment facilities for 15 years, significantly reduced its stockpile of enriched uranium, disabled a major heavy-water reactor and agreed to regular and comprehensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure compliance.
- A much stronger nuclear commitment than in the current deal: “Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.”
To get that, the Obama Administration agreed to:
- Unfreeze $1.7 billion in Iranian funds previously held by the U.S. That was not a quid pro quo for the deal, per se, but settlement of a dispute concerning $400 million that Iran (when ruled by the Shah) had previously paid the U.S. for military equipment that was never delivered, because the U.S. would not deliver it after the Shah was overthrown during the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The total of $1.7 billion included the original $400 million and an additional $1.3 billion in interest.
- Lift economic sanctions imposed by the U.S., the European Union and the United Nations.
- Free Iran’s central bank to operate in the global economy and lift restrictions on Iranian oil exports.
In 2019, Trump boasted that “I would have made a deal not from desperation. I would have doubled and tripled up the sanctions, and I would have made a much better deal.” Looking at the two agreements, which one is actually the better deal, by far? And which one is really a deal made out of desperation?
It’s pretty obvious. So don’t let Trump, Hegseth, Vance, Rubio or anyone else lie to you. Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not a win. It was never closed until Trump attacked. Trump’s deal does not really do anything about Iran’s enriched uranium, or change its regime, which he initially touted as goals. In fact, it has clearly consolidated and strengthened Iran’s regime, and it does not eliminate Iran’s missile capability. More broadly, it has shown the world that the U.S. can be manipulated by threats to close the Straits, even in the face of all the military might deployed. And significantly with respect to the future global role of the U.S., it has divided our valuable allies, most of whom saw this as a completely unnecessary war of choice. The damage to our alliances was only exacerbated by Trump’s odious, ugly, petty and baseless attacks on these same allies.
The Obama Administration’s JCPOA, on the other hand, achieved the goal of limiting Iran’s nuclear weapons, backed by a six-nation deal, and backed by a rigorous international inspection protocol. This was done with, not against, our allies and other key countries. It was a monumental achievement.